Martingale Craps
There are various betting strategy and systems used in Craps gambling. The biggest fallacy is that using systems swings the odds in your favour. In the Casino game of Craps (Bank Craps) all the bets are in the house’s favour. Although you can place large Free Odds bets to insure your losses and reduce the house’s edge, this also reduces the amount you can win. Remember that to place Free Odds bets (0% house edge) you need to have placed a Pass/Don’t Pass Line bet, meaning the overall odds are still negative value.
Craps is a dice game in which players place wagers on the outcome of the roll, or a series of rolls, of a pair of dice. Players may wager money against each other (street craps, also known as shooting dice or rolling dice) or a bank (casino craps, also known as table craps). The classic example for the Martingale system is betting on red or black on a roulette table. This is as close to 50% as you will likely see for a game. The exact odds are 48.6% for European roulette and 47.4% for an American wheel where there are a green 0 and 00. Blackjack, baccarat, and craps are all suitable as well.
The Paroli System
This is my favourite system for Craps. It is a positive progressive betting system where you increase your bets after winning, but decrease your bets when you lose. The advantage is that is never forces you to wager more money than your starting bet.
| Bet | Outcome | Net Win |
| $5 | Win | $5 |
| $10 | Win | $15 |
| $20 | Win | $35 |
Reverse Martingale Craps
The Martingale System
This is the system most players are familiar with. It involves placing 50/50 bets in craps such as the Pass Line/Don’t Pass. When you lose, you double your wager next time. E.g. lose $5, bet $10.
The Martingal system is very dangerous however. Just like doubling up in Blackjack, you can end up making massive wagers after just a few losses. On average, every 4 hours you’ll lose 9 coin flips in a row. This equates to making a $1,280 wager from starting at $5 and losing 9 times.
The Iron Cross Betting System
The Iron Cross system isn’t really it a system at all. It involves placing a series of specific Free Odds and Field bets so that the House edge is minimised. It works by placing a field bet and a bet on the numbers 5, 6 and 8. (The field bet pays 1:1 when the dice lands on a 3,4,9,10,11 and 2:1 on 2 or 12). Basically you win on any number other than 7, meaning you win 80% of the time.
The problem with this system is that it isn’t technically profitable. Although you’re guaranteed to win 80% of the time, you lose all of your bets if the dice rolls a 7 which means the house maintains an edge of about 4% overall.
The Twelve-Dollar 6 and 8 System in Craps
Let’s wrap up the systems to use by giving you one that I believe everybody should adopt. It is based on the following truths:
- Most craps players like to bet “right”
- Most right players (90 percent) prefer the 6 and 8 as their place numbers
- Most players in a casino have restricted bankrolls
That last statement means that the average bankroll for 80 percent of all players is approximately $300. That is a lot of money in the real world, but small by the standards of playing tables with $5 minimums.
When you break that $300 into sessions, and you should – you know that by now – you have $100 to bring to battle. When you set a loss limit at 50 percent, as you also should, it’s obvious you’re restricted as to the moves you can make, but that happens to be the reality of gambling.
You know all the pluses for this play, so let’s go over the negatives:
- You aren’t going to buy that yacht you had your heart set on from these winnings
- You aren’t going to retire at age twenty-six with a million dollars in the bank
- You aren’t going to be hailed as the most aggressive player who ever stepped up to a table
Finally, a few reminders:
- Chart the tables to find a game kicking off 6s and 8s
- Set loss limits (no more than 50 percent)
- Restrict your losing series to three in succession
- Accept small returns
If every single, solitary craps player in the world used this system in the casinos for one month, I wonder what the casinos would do. Try it, you’ll see. You can do so with a $22 NO DEPOSIT Bonus From SlotsLV Casino – CLICK HERE
Introduction
There can be little debate that the Martingale is one of the oldest and most popular betting systems. The siren's call of the Martingale has fooled many gamblers as it usually results in a session win. However, everybody has a finite supply of money and eventually the Martingale will take down even the biggest of bankrolls.
Rules
The following are the rules of the Martingale.
- The Martingale is generally played on even money bets.
- Start by deciding what your winning goal is and your bankroll size. The great the ratio of bankroll to winning goal, the greater your chances of a session success are.
- To make the math easy, the ratio of bankroll to winning goal should be one less than some power of 2. For example, 7, 15, 31, 63, 127, 255, etc.
- Your first bet should be your winning goal.
- If the result of your last bet is a win, then you have achieved your winning goal and may quit.
- If the result of your last bet is a loss, then double your next bet size, if you can.
- If you can't double your bet because you're busted, then walk away broke.
In other words, keep doubling your previous bet, until you win. As long as you can keep doubling, you will achieve your winning goal eventually. No matter how many losses precede a win, you will achieve your winning goal exactly.
Let's look at an example of a player with a $100 winning goal and a bankroll of $6,300.
- His first bet is $100, which loses.
- His second bet is $200, which loses. He is now down $300.
- His third bet is $400, which loses. He is now down $700.
- His fourth bet is $800, which loses. He is now down $1,500.
- His fourth bet is $1,600, which loses. He is now down $3,100.
- His fourth bet is $3,200, which wins. He is now up $100.
Martingale Craps System
I don't think there is an official procedure if the player doesn't have enough money to double his last losing bet, but still has some money. I suppose what most players would do is bet it all. Then, keep betting the lesser of (1) whatever would be needed for achieve a session win and (2) everything left until either ending marker is achieved.
What to Expect
The following tables show what you can expect to happen under different bets and bankroll sizes. Below is an explanation of each column.
- Maximum Bets — The number of losing bets you can afford to lose.
- Bankroll Units — This is the ratio of bankroll size to winning goal. It is equal to 2maximum bets - 1.
- Probability of Success — Probability of achieving winning goal.
- Average Wins per Loss — Number of units the player can expect to win between losses, assuming he keeps starting over after each session win or loss.
- Probability Doubling Bankroll — Probability of doubling the needed bankroll before going bust, assuming the player keeps starting over after each win.
The first table is based on the Player bet in baccarat. Not counting ties, the probability of the Player bet winning is 49.317517%.
Baccarat — Player Bet
| Maximum Bets | Bankroll Units | Probability Success | Average Wins per Loss | Probability Doubling Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 0.869811 | 6.681152 | 0.376682 |
| 4 | 15 | 0.934017 | 14.155437 | 0.359188 |
| 5 | 31 | 0.966558 | 28.902712 | 0.348392 |
| 6 | 63 | 0.983051 | 58.000094 | 0.340634 |
| 7 | 127 | 0.991410 | 115.411214 | 0.334315 |
| 8 | 255 | 0.995646 | 228.687274 | 0.328694 |
| 9 | 511 | 0.997793 | 452.188677 | 0.323417 |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.998882 | 893.172207 | 0.318315 |
Let's look at the situation of the player being able to make up to six losing bets in a row. That would require a bankroll of 63 times the winning goal. The probability of achieving the winning goal of one unit is 98.3051%. If the player did this over and over, he could expect an average of 58.000094 winning sessions for each losing session of 63 units. Note that the loss of 63 units is greater than the 58 wins between losses. Finally, if the player keeps repeating this until he doubles his bankroll, one unit at a time, or goes broke, his probability of doubling his bankroll is 34.0634%.
The next table is based on the pass bet in craps. The probability of the pass bet winning is 244/495 = 49.292929%.
Craps — Pass Bet
| Maximum Bets | Bankroll Units | Probability Success | Average Wins per Loss | Probability Doubling Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 0.869622 | 6.669984 | 0.376108 |
| 4 | 15 | 0.933889 | 14.126063 | 0.358450 |
| 5 | 31 | 0.966477 | 28.830284 | 0.347486 |
| 6 | 63 | 0.983001 | 57.828648 | 0.339557 |
| 7 | 127 | 0.991381 | 115.016656 | 0.333066 |
| 8 | 255 | 0.995629 | 227.797787 | 0.327272 |
| 9 | 511 | 0.997784 | 450.214759 | 0.321822 |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.998876 | 888.845840 | 0.316547 |
The next table is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The probability of the don't pass bet winning, not counting ties is 949/1925 = 49.298701%.
Craps — Don't Pass Bet
| Maximum Bets | Bankroll Units | Probability Success | Average Wins per Loss | Probability Doubling Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 0.869666 | 6.672603 | 0.376243 |
| 4 | 15 | 0.933919 | 14.132952 | 0.358623 |
| 5 | 31 | 0.966496 | 28.847268 | 0.347699 |
| 6 | 63 | 0.983013 | 57.868843 | 0.339810 |
| 7 | 127 | 0.991387 | 115.109141 | 0.333359 |
| 8 | 255 | 0.995633 | 228.006247 | 0.327606 |
| 9 | 511 | 0.997786 | 450.677280 | 0.322197 |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.998877 | 889.859390 | 0.316962 |
The next table is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The probability of an even money bet winning is 18/37 = 48.648649%.
Single-Zero Roulette — Any Even Money Bet
| Maximum Bets | Bankroll Units | Probability Success | Average Wins per Loss | Probability Doubling Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 0.864588 | 6.384896 | 0.361132 |
| 4 | 15 | 0.930464 | 13.381113 | 0.339231 |
| 5 | 31 | 0.964293 | 27.005325 | 0.323946 |
| 6 | 63 | 0.981664 | 53.536685 | 0.311640 |
| 7 | 127 | 0.990584 | 105.203019 | 0.300746 |
| 8 | 255 | 0.995165 | 205.816405 | 0.290553 |
| 9 | 511 | 0.997517 | 401.747736 | 0.280730 |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.998725 | 783.298223 | 0.271123 |
The next table is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The probability of an even money bet winning is 18/38 = 47.368421%.
Double-Zero Roulette — Any Even Money Bet
| Maximum Bets | Bankroll Units | Probability Success | Average Wins per Loss | Probability Doubling Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 0.854206 | 5.859000 | 0.331848 |
| 4 | 15 | 0.923266 | 12.032100 | 0.301929 |
| 5 | 31 | 0.959614 | 23.760990 | 0.278607 |
| 6 | 63 | 0.978744 | 46.045881 | 0.258320 |
| 7 | 127 | 0.988813 | 88.387174 | 0.239598 |
| 8 | 255 | 0.994112 | 168.835630 | 0.221820 |
| 9 | 511 | 0.996901 | 321.687698 | 0.204736 |
| 10 | 1023 | 0.998369 | 612.106626 | 0.188263 |
Video
Please enjoy my video on the Martingale.
Summary
If you want to maximize your chances at a session win, then your chances of achieving it are best with the Martingale. This is at the expense of very short sessions (so less fun playing) and abject disaster when things go bad.
Craps Martingale System
Like all betting systems, not only won't the Martingale eliminate the house edge, it won't even dent it. The expected ratio of losses to amount bet will approach the house edge the more you play. If you must use a betting system, please use a free one like the Martingale. Never pay for one, as they are all equally worthless mathematically.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Oscar's Grind betting system.
Written by: Michael Shackleford